Market comparison

Oakland Mayoral Election

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 8m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

18 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oakland Mayoral Election
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Barbara Lee Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	95.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0% Barbara Lee Open Kalshi ↗	94.5% Bid 93.0% · Ask 96.0% Barbara Lee Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Brenda Grisham Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Brenda Grisham Open Kalshi ↗	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Brenda Grisham Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp