Market comparison

Oct 2026 temperature increase?

2 venues · 12 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 2, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 46s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 16, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Oct 2026 temperature increase?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
1.03 to 1.09 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 1.03 to 1.09 Open Kalshi ↗	—
1.10 to 1.16 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% 1.10 to 1.16 Open Kalshi ↗	—
1.17 to 1.23 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% 1.17 to 1.23 Open Kalshi ↗	—
1.24 to 1.30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% 1.24 to 1.30 Open Kalshi ↗	—
1.30–1.34ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 25.0% 1.30–1.34ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.30ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 7.0% <1.30ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.35–1.39ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 61.0% 1.35–1.39ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.40–1.44ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 58.0% 1.40–1.44ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.45–1.49ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.5% Bid — · Ask 63.0% 1.45–1.49ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.49ºC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	45.5% Bid 35.0% · Ask 56.0% >1.49ºC Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
1.02999 or below Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% 1.02999 or below Open Kalshi ↗	—
1.30001 or above Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	99.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 99.0% 1.30001 or above Open Kalshi ↗	—

1.03 to 1.09

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

1.03 to 1.09

Open Kalshi ↗

1.10 to 1.16

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

1.10 to 1.16

Open Kalshi ↗

1.17 to 1.23

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

1.17 to 1.23

Open Kalshi ↗

1.24 to 1.30

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0%

1.24 to 1.30

Open Kalshi ↗

1.30–1.34ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 25.0%

1.30–1.34ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.30ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 7.0%

<1.30ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.35–1.39ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 61.0%

1.35–1.39ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.40–1.44ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 58.0%

1.40–1.44ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.45–1.49ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid — · Ask 63.0%

1.45–1.49ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.49ºC

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 56.0%

>1.49ºC

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

1.02999 or below

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

1.02999 or below

Open Kalshi ↗

1.30001 or above

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 99.0%

1.30001 or above

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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