Market comparison

Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 10, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 21, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Dylan Marando Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Dylan Marando Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Dylan Marando Open Kalshi ↗	6.9 pp
Eric Lombardi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Eric Lombardi Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Eric Lombardi Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Lee Fairclough Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	55.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 58.0% Lee Fairclough Open Polymarket ↗	48.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 51.0% Lee Fairclough Open Kalshi ↗	7.0 pp
Navdeep Bains Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	34.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.0% Navdeep Bains Open Polymarket ↗	35.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 41.0% Navdeep Bains Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Stephanie Bowman Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.7% Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.8% Stephanie Bowman Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 17.0% Stephanie Bowman Open Kalshi ↗	3.4 pp

Dylan Marando

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Dylan Marando

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0%

Dylan Marando

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.9 pp

Eric Lombardi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Eric Lombardi

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Eric Lombardi

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Lee Fairclough

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

55.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 58.0%

Lee Fairclough

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 51.0%

Lee Fairclough

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 7.0 pp

Navdeep Bains

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

34.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.0%

Navdeep Bains

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 41.0%

Navdeep Bains

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Stephanie Bowman

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.8%

Stephanie Bowman

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 17.0%

Stephanie Bowman

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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