The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $119K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 41s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 8m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

23.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 23.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 59.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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