Market comparison

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $19.5M reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $27K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
October 19 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% October 19 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% October 20 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 21 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% October 21 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 22 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% October 22 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 23 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% October 23 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 24 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% October 24 Open Kalshi ↗	—
October 25 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% October 25 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Yes Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

October 19

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

October 19

Open Kalshi ↗

October 20

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

October 20

Open Kalshi ↗

October 21

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

October 21

Open Kalshi ↗

October 22

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

October 22

Open Kalshi ↗

October 23

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

October 23

Open Kalshi ↗

October 24

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

14.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

October 24

Open Kalshi ↗

October 25

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

October 25

Open Kalshi ↗

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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