Market comparison

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $19.5M reported volume

Observed 33s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $62K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Above 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 3 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0% Above 4 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	78.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% Above 5 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 45.0% Above 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Above 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Above 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 10 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Yes Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Above 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

Above 3

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 4

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0%

Above 4

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Above 5

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 6

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 45.0%

Above 6

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 7

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Above 7

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 8

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Above 8

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 9

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Above 9

Open Kalshi ↗

Above 10

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Above 10

Open Kalshi ↗

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

5.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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