Market comparison
Recession this year?
2 venues · 1 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $3.7M reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 31, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $2.3M reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 31, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
Known rule differences between venues
- Polymarket also resolves Yes on an NBER recession announcement; Kalshi only on two consecutive negative BEA quarters.
- Quarter windows differ (e.g. Polymarket Q2 2025-Q4 2026; Kalshi 'this year' covers 2025 or 2026).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Yes Resolution rules differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable. | 2.5 pp |
Yes
Resolution rules differDo not treat this price difference as directly comparable.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.