Market comparison

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

2 venues · 5 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $204K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $48K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Cut 1-25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% 25 bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cut 1-25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Cut more than 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% 50+ bps decrease Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cut more than 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Hike 1-25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	65.4% Bid 64.6% · Ask 66.2% 25 bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	62.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0% Hike 1-25bps Open Kalshi ↗	3.4 pp
Hike more than 25bps Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% 50+ bps increase Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Hike more than 25bps Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Maintain current rate Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% No change Open Polymarket ↗	32.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0% Maintain current rate Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp

Cut 1-25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

25 bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Cut more than 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

50+ bps decrease

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Cut more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Hike 1-25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

65.4%

Bid 64.6% · Ask 66.2%

25 bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 63.0%

Hike 1-25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

Hike more than 25bps

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

50+ bps increase

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Hike more than 25bps

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Maintain current rate

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

No change

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 34.0%

Maintain current rate

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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