The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Rhode Island Governor Election Winner

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $85K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $74K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Democratic

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

96.4%

Bid 95.2% · Ask 96.4%

Helena Foulkes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

96.5%

Bid 95.4% · Ask 97.5%

Helena Foulkes (D)

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Republican

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

0.8%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 0.9%

Aaron Guckian

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.9%

Republican

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Independent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 2.7%

Independent

Open Polymarket ↗

Ken Block

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Ken Block

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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