The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Sanchez vs Mediorreal Arias

2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · closed

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Sanchez

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

W15 Campina Grande: Ana Sofia Sanchez vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Ana Sofia Sanchez · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Set Handicap: Ana Sofia Sanchez (-1.5) vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

99.6%

Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%

Set Handicap: Ana Sofia Sanchez (-1.5) vs Valentina Mediorreal Arias (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Set Handicap: Valentina Mediorreal Arias (-1.5) vs Ana Sofia Sanchez (+1.5)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid — · Ask 0.8%

Set Handicap: Valentina Mediorreal Arias (-1.5) vs Ana Sofia Sanchez (+1.5)

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Valentina Mediorreal Arias

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Valentina Mediorreal Arias · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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