Market comparison

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $157K reported volume

Observed 49s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 13, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $110K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for State of the economy at the end of 2026
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Overheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	78.0% Bid 73.9% · Ask 78.0% Overheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 77.0% Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.7% Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Slack / disinflation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.2% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.6% Slack / disinflation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Soft landing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.1% Bid 18.1% · Ask 21.2% Soft landing Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 19.0% Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stagflation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.0% Stagflation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.5% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.8% Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) Open Polymarket ↗	—

Overheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 73.9% · Ask 78.0%

Overheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 77.0%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Open Polymarket ↗

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.7%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Open Polymarket ↗

Slack / disinflation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.2%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.6%

Slack / disinflation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Soft landing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.1%

Bid 18.1% · Ask 21.2%

Soft landing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 19.0%

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Open Polymarket ↗

Stagflation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.0%

Stagflation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.8%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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