Market comparison
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
2 venues · 3 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗3 outcomes · $248K reported volume
Observed 45s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗13 outcomes · $22K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
- Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Republican Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.3 pp | ||
David Hatley Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Democratic
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Republican
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.3 pp
David Hatley
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.