Market comparison
Texas Governor-Senate combo
2 venues · 4 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗4 outcomes · $209K reported volume
Observed 20s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗5 outcomes · $24K reported volume
Observed 20s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
- Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
D:D Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
D:R Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
R:D Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
R:R Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 1.5 pp |
D:D
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
D:R
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.6 pp
R:D
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
R:R
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.