Market comparison

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 26th

2 venues · 24 outcome rows · 10 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

25 outcomes · $268K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 2, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Top Chinese AI Company week of October 26th
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Alibaba Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Baidu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Baidu Open Kalshi ↗	1.1 pp
ByteDance Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.6% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% ByteDance Open Kalshi ↗	0.6 pp
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.5% Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	3.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% DeepSeek Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Meituan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗	1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Meituan Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
MiniMax Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.9% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.3% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% MiniMax Open Kalshi ↗	1.1 pp
Moonshot Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	25.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Moonshot Open Kalshi ↗	20.5 pp
Tencent Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.7% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Tencent Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Xiaomi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	60.2% Bid 59.1% · Ask 61.3% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	69.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 69.0% Xiaomi Open Kalshi ↗	8.8 pp
Z.ai Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.7% Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.9% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Z.ai Open Kalshi ↗	2.3 pp
Company A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
StepFun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% StepFun Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Alibaba

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

Alibaba

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Baidu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2%

Baidu

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Baidu

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

ByteDance

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.6%

ByteDance

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

ByteDance

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

DeepSeek

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

DeepSeek

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Meituan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Meituan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Meituan

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

MiniMax

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.3%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

MiniMax

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Moonshot

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0%

Moonshot

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

Moonshot

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 20.5 pp

Tencent

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.7%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Tencent

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Xiaomi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

60.2%

Bid 59.1% · Ask 61.3%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 69.0%

Xiaomi

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 8.8 pp

Z.ai

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.9%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0%

Z.ai

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.3 pp

Company A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

StepFun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

StepFun

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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