The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Top Spotify Song 2026

2 venues · 79 outcome rows · 11 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

28 outcomes · $295K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

63 outcomes · $234K reported volume

Observed 55s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

APT.

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

APT.

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Babydoll

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Babydoll

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.7%

Bid 13.4% · Ask 13.9%

Babydoll – Dominic Fike

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Beauty and a Beat

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

Beauty and a Beat

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6%

Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Billie Jean

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Billie Jean

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Billie Jean – Michael Jackson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Die With A Smile

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Die With A Smile

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

drop dead

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

drop dead

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

End of Beginning

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 86.0%

End of Beginning

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

83.9%

Bid 83.5% · Ask 84.3%

End of Beginning – Djo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

hate that i made you love me

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

hate that i made you love me

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Man I Need

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Man I Need

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Man I Need – Olivia Dean

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

stupid song

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

stupid song

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

SWIM

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0%

SWIM

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Swim – BTS

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

American Girls

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

American Girls

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Aperture

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Aperture

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

back to friends

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

back to friends

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy

Open Polymarket ↗

Don’t Say You Love Me

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Don’t Say You Love Me

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

DtMF

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

DtMF

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Golden

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Golden

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

I Just Might

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

I Just Might

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

luther (with sza)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

luther (with sza)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Manchild

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Manchild

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ordinary

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Ordinary

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Raindance (Feat. Tems)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Raindance (Feat. Tems)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Risk It All – Bruno Mars

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Risk It All – Bruno Mars

Open Polymarket ↗

Soda Pop

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Soda Pop

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Song AA"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AA" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AB"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AB" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AC"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AC" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AD"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AD" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AE"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AE" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AF"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AF" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AG"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AG" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AH"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AH" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AI"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AI" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AJ"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AJ" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AK"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AK" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AL"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AL" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AM"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AM" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AN"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AN" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AO"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AO" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AP"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AP" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AQ"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AQ" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AR"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AR" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AS"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AS" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AT"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AT" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AU"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AU" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AV"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AV" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AW"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AW" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AX"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AX" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song AY"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song AY" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song D"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song D" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song E"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song E" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song F"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song F" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song G"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song G" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song H"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song H" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song I"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song I" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song J"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song J" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song K"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song K" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song L"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song L" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song M"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song M" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song N"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song N" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song O"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song O" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song P"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song P" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song Q"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song Q" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song R"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song R" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song S"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song S" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song T"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song T" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song U"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song U" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song V"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song V" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song W"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song W" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song X"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song X" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song Y"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song Y" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Song Z"

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

"Song Z" · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Stateside + Zara Larsson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Stateside + Zara Larsson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stateside + Zara Larsson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson

Open Polymarket ↗

the cure

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

the cure

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

The Fate of Ophelia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

The Fate of Ophelia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Your Idol

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Your Idol

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.