Market comparison

TX-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 18 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $22K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for TX-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.8% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.0% Democrat Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Fallon, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 98.6% Fallon, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.7% Fallon, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	77.5% Bid 72.0% · Ask 83.0% Fallon, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	58.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0% Fallon, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 53.0% Fallon, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 36.0% Fallon, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0% Fallon, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.8% Bid 2.6% · Ask 13.0% Fallon, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fallon, 32+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.2% Fallon, 32+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.4% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.7% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.6% · Ask 13.4% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.8% Bid 14.2% · Ask 21.4% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 24.0% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.4% Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.1% Republican 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.4% Bid 2.9% · Ask 7.9% Republican 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 35%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.4% Bid 0.9% · Ask 7.9% Republican 35%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat Wins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.0%

Democrat Wins

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Fallon, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 98.6%

Fallon, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 94.7%

Fallon, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

77.5%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 83.0%

Fallon, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 69.0%

Fallon, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 53.0%

Fallon, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 36.0%

Fallon, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0%

Fallon, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.8%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 13.0%

Fallon, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Fallon, 32+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.2%

Fallon, 32+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.7%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 12.6% · Ask 13.4%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.8%

Bid 14.2% · Ask 21.4%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 24.0%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.4%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.1%

Republican 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.4%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 7.9%

Republican 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 35%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.4%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 7.9%

Republican 35%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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