Market comparison

UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $70K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 30s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Abubakar Vagaev Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	60.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Abubakar Vagaev Open Kalshi ↗	59.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.5% Bid 64.0% · Ask 75.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 23.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 74.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jacob Malkoun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% Jacob Malkoun Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Malkoun in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Malkoun in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Malkoun in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Malkoun in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Malkoun in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Malkoun in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Malkoun to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0% Malkoun to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.5% Bid 88.0% · Ask 95.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vagaev in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Vagaev in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vagaev in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Vagaev in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vagaev in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Vagaev in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Vagaev to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0% Vagaev to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Abubakar Vagaev

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0%

Abubakar Vagaev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0%

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.5%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 75.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 23.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.0%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 74.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 75.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Jacob Malkoun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0%

Jacob Malkoun

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Malkoun in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Malkoun in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Malkoun in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Malkoun in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Malkoun in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Malkoun in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0%

Malkoun to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

91.5%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 95.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

83.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

74.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Vagaev in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Vagaev in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Vagaev in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Vagaev in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Vagaev in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Vagaev in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0%

Vagaev to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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