Market comparison

UFC 333: Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (Featherweight, Early Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki (Featherweight, Early Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Daniel Gustavo Santos Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	53.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Daniel Gustavo Santos Open Kalshi ↗	51.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0% Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Bolaji Oki Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0% Bolaji Oki Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 32.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	52.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 54.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 38.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 53.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	83.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 61.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.5% Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oki in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 21.0% Oki in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oki in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Oki in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oki in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Oki in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oki to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	27.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 32.0% Oki to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Santos in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 20.0% Santos in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Santos in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 19.0% Santos in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Santos in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 14.0% Santos in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Santos to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 27.0% Santos to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Daniel Gustavo Santos

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

Daniel Gustavo Santos

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

51.5%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0%

Daniel Santos vs. Bolaji Oki

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Bolaji Oki

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

48.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0%

Bolaji Oki

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 32.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

52.5%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 54.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.0%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 38.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

35.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 41.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 53.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

83.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 88.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 61.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.5%

Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Oki in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 21.0%

Oki in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Oki in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Oki in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Oki in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Oki in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Oki to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

27.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 32.0%

Oki to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Santos in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 20.0%

Santos in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Santos in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 19.0%

Santos in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Santos in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 14.0%

Santos in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Santos to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 27.0%

Santos to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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