Market comparison

UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $55K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 25, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Nikita Krylov Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Nikita Krylov Open Kalshi ↗	16.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Decision or Draw Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0% Decision or Draw Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 2? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.5% Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0% Ends before Round 2? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ends before Round 3? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	82.5% Bid 81.0% · Ask 84.0% Ends before Round 3? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight to Go the Distance? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0% Fight to Go the Distance? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by decision? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0% Fight won by decision? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	59.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 64.0% Fight won by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fight won by submission? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 31.0% Fight won by submission? Open Polymarket ↗	—
Krylov in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0% Krylov in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Krylov in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Krylov in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Krylov in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Krylov in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Krylov to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 12.0% Krylov to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 0.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.5% Bid 60.0% · Ask 67.0% O/U 0.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0% O/U 1.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0% O/U 2.5 Rounds Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yakhyaev in Round 1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Yakhyaev in Round 1 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yakhyaev in Round 2 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0% Yakhyaev in Round 2 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yakhyaev in Round 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Yakhyaev in Round 3 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO? Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	55.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0% Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO? Open Polymarket ↗	—

Nikita Krylov

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Nikita Krylov

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Decision or Draw

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0%

Decision or Draw

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 2?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

62.5%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0%

Ends before Round 2?

Open Polymarket ↗

Ends before Round 3?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

82.5%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 84.0%

Ends before Round 3?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight to Go the Distance?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 15.0%

Fight to Go the Distance?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by decision?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

11.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 17.0%

Fight won by decision?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

59.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 64.0%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Fight won by submission?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

29.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 31.0%

Fight won by submission?

Open Polymarket ↗

Krylov in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 13.0%

Krylov in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Krylov in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Krylov in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Krylov in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Krylov in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Krylov to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 12.0%

Krylov to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 67.0%

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

30.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 31.0%

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0%

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Open Polymarket ↗

Yakhyaev in Round 1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Yakhyaev in Round 1

Open Polymarket ↗

Yakhyaev in Round 2

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0%

Yakhyaev in Round 2

Open Polymarket ↗

Yakhyaev in Round 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yakhyaev in Round 3

Open Polymarket ↗

Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

55.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%

Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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