Market comparison

United States Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover

2 venues · 30 outcome rows · 21 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

53 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 40s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 1, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for United States Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Alexander Albon Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2% Alexander Albon Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Alexander Albon Open Polymarket ↗	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Alexander Albon Open Kalshi ↗	—
Arvid Lindblad Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Arvid Lindblad Open Polymarket ↗ 2.6% Bid — · Ask 5.2% Arvid Lindblad Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Arvid Lindblad Open Kalshi ↗	—
Carlos Sainz Jr. Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.3% Carlos Sainz Jr. Open Polymarket ↗ 4.5% Bid — · Ask 9.0% Carlos Sainz Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Carlos Sainz Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	—
Charles Leclerc Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Charles Leclerc Open Polymarket ↗ 32.5% Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0% Charles Leclerc Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Charles Leclerc Open Kalshi ↗	—
Esteban Ocon Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Esteban Ocon Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Esteban Ocon Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% Esteban Ocon Open Kalshi ↗	—
Fernando Alonso Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% Fernando Alonso Open Polymarket ↗ 4.5% Bid — · Ask 9.0% Fernando Alonso Open Polymarket ↗	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Fernando Alonso Open Kalshi ↗	—
Franco Colapinto Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6% Franco Colapinto Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Franco Colapinto Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Franco Colapinto Open Kalshi ↗	—
Gabriel Bortoleto Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6% Gabriel Bortoleto Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Gabriel Bortoleto Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% Gabriel Bortoleto Open Kalshi ↗	—
George Russell Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% George Russell Open Polymarket ↗ 39.5% Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0% George Russell Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% George Russell Open Kalshi ↗	—
Isack Hadjar Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Isack Hadjar Open Polymarket ↗ 17.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0% Isack Hadjar Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0% Isack Hadjar Open Kalshi ↗	—
Lance Stroll Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.7% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2% Lance Stroll Open Polymarket ↗ 4.8% Bid — · Ask 9.5% Lance Stroll Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% Lance Stroll Open Kalshi ↗	—
Lando Norris Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Lando Norris Open Polymarket ↗ 35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 39.0% Lando Norris Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Lando Norris Open Kalshi ↗	—
Lewis Hamilton Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Lewis Hamilton Open Polymarket ↗ 34.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 36.0% Lewis Hamilton Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Lewis Hamilton Open Kalshi ↗	—
Liam Lawson Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Liam Lawson Open Polymarket ↗ 2.6% Bid — · Ask 5.2% Liam Lawson Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Liam Lawson Open Kalshi ↗	—
Max Verstappen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	45.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0% Max Verstappen Open Polymarket ↗ 74.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0% Max Verstappen Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Max Verstappen Open Kalshi ↗	—
Nico Hulkenberg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.7% Nico Hulkenberg Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Nico Hulkenberg Open Polymarket ↗	9.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0% Nico Hulkenberg Open Kalshi ↗	—
Oliver Bearman Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% Oliver Bearman Open Polymarket ↗ 2.6% Bid — · Ask 5.2% Oliver Bearman Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% Oliver Bearman Open Kalshi ↗	—
Oscar Piastri Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.7% Bid 1.7% · Ask 3.7% Oscar Piastri Open Polymarket ↗ 14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 15.0% Oscar Piastri Open Polymarket ↗	2.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Oscar Piastri Open Kalshi ↗	—
Pierre Gasly Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6% Pierre Gasly Open Polymarket ↗ 2.5% Bid — · Ask 5.0% Pierre Gasly Open Polymarket ↗	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Pierre Gasly Open Kalshi ↗	—
Sergio Perez Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.7% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2% Sergio Perez Open Polymarket ↗ 4.8% Bid — · Ask 9.5% Sergio Perez Open Polymarket ↗	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Sergio Perez Open Kalshi ↗	—
Valtteri Bottas Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2% Valtteri Bottas Open Polymarket ↗ 4.8% Bid — · Ask 9.5% Valtteri Bottas Open Polymarket ↗	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Valtteri Bottas Open Kalshi ↗	—
Andrea Kimi Antonelli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Andrea Kimi Antonelli Open Kalshi ↗	—
Driver A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Driver A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Driver B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Driver B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Driver C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Driver C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Driver D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Driver D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Driver E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Driver E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kimi Antonelli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 28.0% Kimi Antonelli Open Polymarket ↗ 66.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 68.0% Kimi Antonelli Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Yuki Tsunoda Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.0% Yuki Tsunoda Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid — · Ask 10.0% Yuki Tsunoda Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Alexander Albon

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.2%

Alexander Albon

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Alexander Albon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Alexander Albon

Open Kalshi ↗

Arvid Lindblad

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3%

Arvid Lindblad

Open Polymarket ↗

2.6%

Bid — · Ask 5.2%

Arvid Lindblad

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Arvid Lindblad

Open Kalshi ↗

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.3%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

4.5%

Bid — · Ask 9.0%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Charles Leclerc

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Charles Leclerc

Open Polymarket ↗

32.5%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0%

Charles Leclerc

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Charles Leclerc

Open Kalshi ↗

Esteban Ocon

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3%

Esteban Ocon

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Esteban Ocon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0%

Esteban Ocon

Open Kalshi ↗

Fernando Alonso

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

Fernando Alonso

Open Polymarket ↗

4.5%

Bid — · Ask 9.0%

Fernando Alonso

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Fernando Alonso

Open Kalshi ↗

Franco Colapinto

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6%

Franco Colapinto

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Franco Colapinto

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Franco Colapinto

Open Kalshi ↗

Gabriel Bortoleto

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6%

Gabriel Bortoleto

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Gabriel Bortoleto

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

Gabriel Bortoleto

Open Kalshi ↗

George Russell

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

George Russell

Open Polymarket ↗

39.5%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0%

George Russell

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

George Russell

Open Kalshi ↗

Isack Hadjar

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Isack Hadjar

Open Polymarket ↗

17.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0%

Isack Hadjar

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Isack Hadjar

Open Kalshi ↗

Lance Stroll

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2%

Lance Stroll

Open Polymarket ↗

4.8%

Bid — · Ask 9.5%

Lance Stroll

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

Lance Stroll

Open Kalshi ↗

Lando Norris

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Lando Norris

Open Polymarket ↗

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 39.0%

Lando Norris

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Lando Norris

Open Kalshi ↗

Lewis Hamilton

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Lewis Hamilton

Open Polymarket ↗

34.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 36.0%

Lewis Hamilton

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Lewis Hamilton

Open Kalshi ↗

Liam Lawson

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3%

Liam Lawson

Open Polymarket ↗

2.6%

Bid — · Ask 5.2%

Liam Lawson

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Liam Lawson

Open Kalshi ↗

Max Verstappen

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

45.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 46.0%

Max Verstappen

Open Polymarket ↗

74.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0%

Max Verstappen

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Max Verstappen

Open Kalshi ↗

Nico Hulkenberg

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.7%

Nico Hulkenberg

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Nico Hulkenberg

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 9.0%

Nico Hulkenberg

Open Kalshi ↗

Oliver Bearman

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3%

Oliver Bearman

Open Polymarket ↗

2.6%

Bid — · Ask 5.2%

Oliver Bearman

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

Oliver Bearman

Open Kalshi ↗

Oscar Piastri

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

2.7%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 3.7%

Oscar Piastri

Open Polymarket ↗

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 15.0%

Oscar Piastri

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Oscar Piastri

Open Kalshi ↗

Pierre Gasly

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.6%

Pierre Gasly

Open Polymarket ↗

2.5%

Bid — · Ask 5.0%

Pierre Gasly

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Pierre Gasly

Open Kalshi ↗

Sergio Perez

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.2%

Sergio Perez

Open Polymarket ↗

4.8%

Bid — · Ask 9.5%

Sergio Perez

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Sergio Perez

Open Kalshi ↗

Valtteri Bottas

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.2%

Valtteri Bottas

Open Polymarket ↗

4.8%

Bid — · Ask 9.5%

Valtteri Bottas

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Valtteri Bottas

Open Kalshi ↗

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

Kimi Antonelli

Open Polymarket ↗

66.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 68.0%

Kimi Antonelli

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Yes

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Yuki Tsunoda

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid — · Ask 1.0%

Yuki Tsunoda

Open Polymarket ↗

5.0%

Bid — · Ask 10.0%

Yuki Tsunoda

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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