Market comparison
US defaults on debt by 2027?
2 venues · 1 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $19K reported volume
Observed 6m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $2K reported volume
Observed 2m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
Known rule differences between venues
- Both resolve Yes on a missed Treasury note/bond/bill payment or a major rating agency default designation; Polymarket only counts events after its creation date (e.g. Nov 5, 2025).
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Yes Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp |
Yes
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.8 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.