Market comparison

US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $292K reported volume

Observed 8s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $63K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
0.5–1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% 0.5–1.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8% <0.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
1.0–1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.9% Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.0% 1.0–1.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
1.5–2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.5% 1.5–2.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
2.0–2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% 2.0–2.5% Open Polymarket ↗	—
2.5–3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% 2.5–3.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.5% Bid 65.0% · Ask 68.0% ≥3.0% Open Polymarket ↗	—
Above 0.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 0.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0% Above 0.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Above 1.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 1.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0% Above 1.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0% Above 2.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 2.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% Above 2.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	66.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 68.0% Above 3.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 3.5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Above 3.5% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4.0% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% Above 4.0% Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

0.5–1.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4%

0.5–1.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

0.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.8%

<0.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

1.0–1.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.0%

1.0–1.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

1.5–2.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.5%

1.5–2.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

2.0–2.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0%

2.0–2.5%

Open Polymarket ↗

2.5–3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

2.5–3.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.5%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 68.0%

≥3.0%

Open Polymarket ↗

Above 0.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 0.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 100.0%

Above 0.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Above 1.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 1.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0%

Above 1.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0%

Above 2.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 2.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Above 2.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 68.0%

Above 3.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 3.5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Above 3.5%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Above 4.0%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Above 4.0%

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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