Market comparison

VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 25 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $12K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 5-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.5% Democrat 5-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.6% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.9% Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25-30% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.4% Bid 0.9% · Ask 13.9% Democrat 25-30% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 30-35% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.4% · Ask 5.5% Democrat 30-35% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 35-40% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 40.0% Democrat 35-40% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 40-45% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 34.0% Democrat 40-45% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 45%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 41.0% Democrat 45%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
McClellan, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.7% Bid 94.1% · Ask 99.3% McClellan, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.1% Bid 94.1% · Ask 99.3% McClellan, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.1% Bid 94.1% · Ask 99.2% McClellan, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.9% Bid 93.9% · Ask 99.2% McClellan, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 24+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	94.6% Bid 93.4% · Ask 99.2% McClellan, 24+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	92.6% Bid 92.3% · Ask 98.4% McClellan, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 30+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	91.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 98.4% McClellan, 30+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 33+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 96.4% McClellan, 33+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 36+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 86.0% McClellan, 36+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 39+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 73.0% McClellan, 39+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 42+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 57.0% McClellan, 42+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 45+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 40.0% McClellan, 45+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 48+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0% McClellan, 48+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 51+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.3% Bid 2.6% · Ask 14.0% McClellan, 51+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
McClellan, 54+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.8% McClellan, 54+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican Wins Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.0% Republican Wins Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 5-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.5%

Democrat 5-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.6%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 7.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25-30%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.4%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 13.9%

Democrat 25-30%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 30-35%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 5.5%

Democrat 30-35%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 35-40%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 40.0%

Democrat 35-40%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 40-45%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 34.0%

Democrat 40-45%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 45%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 41.0%

Democrat 45%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

McClellan, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.7%

Bid 94.1% · Ask 99.3%

McClellan, 12+ pts

VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 0-5%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 5-15%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 15-20%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 20-25%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 25-30%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 30-35%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 35-40%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 40-45%

Polymarket

Kalshi

Democrat 45%+

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 12+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 15+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 18+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 21+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 24+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 27+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 30+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 33+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 36+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 39+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 42+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 45+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 48+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 51+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

McClellan, 54+ pts

Polymarket

Kalshi

Republican Wins

Polymarket

Kalshi