Market comparison

VA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for VA-05 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 5%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 1.7% · Ask 38.3% Democrat 5%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
McGuire, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 44.0% McGuire, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 3+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 32.0% Perriello, 3+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 6+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 7.7% · Ask 19.0% Perriello, 6+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.7% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Perriello, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 12+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.5% Perriello, 12+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.4% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.8% Perriello, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 18+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.2% Perriello, 18+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Perriello, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0% Perriello, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.5% Bid 15.1% · Ask 83.9% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	40.0% Bid 3.2% · Ask 76.8% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	38.4% Bid 2.8% · Ask 74.0% Republican 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.4% Bid 5.0% · Ask 79.9% Republican 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.5% Bid 0.5% · Ask 74.6% Republican 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.4% Bid 0.4% · Ask 72.3% Republican 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 25%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.5% Republican 25%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Democrat 5%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 1.7% · Ask 38.3%

Democrat 5%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

McGuire, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

36.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 44.0%

McGuire, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 3+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 32.0%

Perriello, 3+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 6+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 7.7% · Ask 19.0%

Perriello, 6+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.7%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Perriello, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 12+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.3%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.5%

Perriello, 12+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.4%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.8%

Perriello, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 18+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.2%

Perriello, 18+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Perriello, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Perriello, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 15.1% · Ask 83.9%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

40.0%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 76.8%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

38.4%

Bid 2.8% · Ask 74.0%

Republican 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

42.4%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 79.9%

Republican 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 74.6%

Republican 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

36.4%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 72.3%

Republican 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 25%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.5%

Republican 25%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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