Market comparison

VA-07 House Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $12K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 42s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for VA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 5-10% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.8% Democrat 5-10% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 10-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% Democrat 10-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-20% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 35.0% Democrat 15-20% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 20-25% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.5% Bid 25.0% · Ask 28.0% Democrat 20-25% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 25%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Democrat 25%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.6% Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.4% Democrat 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 0-5% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 3.0% Republican 0-5% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 5%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.4% Republican 5%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Vindman, 5+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.1% Vindman, 5+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 8+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0% Vindman, 8+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 67.0% · Ask 77.0% Vindman, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 14+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 67.0% Vindman, 14+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 49.0% Vindman, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 20+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 31.0% Vindman, 20+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0% Vindman, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 26+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.3% Bid 6.6% · Ask 18.0% Vindman, 26+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Vindman, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 0.3% · Ask 12.0% Vindman, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat 5-10%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.8%

Democrat 5-10%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 10-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

Democrat 10-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-20%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 35.0%

Democrat 15-20%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 20-25%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

26.5%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 28.0%

Democrat 20-25%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 25%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Democrat 25%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.6%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.4%

Democrat 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 0-5%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 3.0%

Republican 0-5%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 5%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 4.4%

Republican 5%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Vindman, 5+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 95.1%

Vindman, 5+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 8+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 86.0%

Vindman, 8+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 77.0%

Vindman, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 14+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 67.0%

Vindman, 14+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 49.0%

Vindman, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 20+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 31.0%

Vindman, 20+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 25.0%

Vindman, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 26+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

12.3%

Bid 6.6% · Ask 18.0%

Vindman, 26+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Vindman, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.5%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 12.0%

Vindman, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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