The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Vegas vs Columbus

2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

  • Postponement: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC/tennis: ~14 days).
  • Ties and draws in two-way sports (NFL, college football, UFC no-contest): both venues pay 50/50.
  • Soccer: both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Tennis: Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • UFC: Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Polymarket two-way moneylines are one contract priced on the first-named side; the other side is its complement (recorded as a derived relation, not a link).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Vegas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 55.0%

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%

Vegas

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Columbus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

Columbus

Open Kalshi ↗

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

77.5%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 78.0%

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0%

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 26.0%

Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Spread -1.5

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

33.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0%

Spread -1.5

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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