Market comparison

Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory

2 venues · 23 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 7.8% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.5% Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.2% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.7% Bid 0.7% · Ask 8.6% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0% Democrat 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.0% Democrat 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% Democrat 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.3% Bid 1.3% · Ask 9.3% Democrat 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 18-21% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.1% Bid 16.6% · Ask 17.6% Democrat 18-21% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 21%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.5% Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0% Democrat 21%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 3%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6% Republican 3%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Warner, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.5% Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0% Warner, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.9% Warner, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.5% Bid 90.3% · Ask 96.5% Warner, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 88.0% Warner, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 82.0% Warner, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	74.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 74.0% Warner, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 72.0% Warner, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 56.0% Warner, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 46.0% Warner, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	30.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 37.0% Warner, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 29.0% Warner, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0% Warner, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.3% Bid 5.7% · Ask 15.0% Warner, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 7.8%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.2%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 8.6%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0%

Democrat 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.0%

Democrat 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

Democrat 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.3%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 9.3%

Democrat 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 18-21%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 16.6% · Ask 17.6%

Democrat 18-21%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 21%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

58.5%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0%

Democrat 21%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 3%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6%

Republican 3%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Warner, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.5%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0%

Warner, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.9%

Warner, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

96.5%

Bid 90.3% · Ask 96.5%

Warner, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 88.0%

Warner, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 82.0%

Warner, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 74.0%

Warner, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 72.0%

Warner, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 56.0%

Warner, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

42.5%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 46.0%

Warner, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 37.0%

Warner, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 29.0%

Warner, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 22.0%

Warner, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

10.3%

Bid 5.7% · Ask 15.0%

Warner, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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