Market comparison

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $7.2M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $1.3M reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium Open Polymarket ↗	—
5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.5% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) Open Polymarket ↗	—
Before April Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before April · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.8% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.9% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 20, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0% Before Jan 20, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before July Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before July · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before June Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before June · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before May · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dilution of Iran's Uranium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Dilution of Iran's Uranium Open Polymarket ↗	—
Enriched Uranium Surrender Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Enriched Uranium Surrender Open Polymarket ↗	—
Iran Reconstruction Funding Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Iran Reconstruction Funding Open Polymarket ↗	—
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) Open Polymarket ↗	—

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

Open Polymarket ↗

5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

Open Polymarket ↗

Before April

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before April · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Aug 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Feb 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Before Feb 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.8%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.9%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 1, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jan 20, 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 37.0%

Before Jan 20, 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before July

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before July · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before June

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before June · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Mar 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before May

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before May · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Sep 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

Open Polymarket ↗

Enriched Uranium Surrender

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0%

Enriched Uranium Surrender

Open Polymarket ↗

Iran Reconstruction Funding

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

Open Polymarket ↗

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets