Market comparison

When will the Bitcoin halving occur?

2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $24K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jun 1, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Apr 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for When will the Bitcoin halving occur?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Before Apr 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	40.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 48.0% Before Apr 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.7% Before Jun 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 8.2% Before Mar 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	77.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 77.0% Before May 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
June 30, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.9% Bid 97.8% · Ask 98.0% June 30, 2028 Open Polymarket ↗	—
March 31, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.5% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% March 31, 2028 Open Polymarket ↗	—

Before Apr 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

40.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 48.0%

Before Apr 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Jun 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 97.7%

Before Jun 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before Mar 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 8.2%

Before Mar 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before May 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

77.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 77.0%

Before May 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

June 30, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

97.9%

Bid 97.8% · Ask 98.0%

June 30, 2028

Open Polymarket ↗

March 31, 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0%

March 31, 2028

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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