Market comparison

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

2 venues · 33 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

90 outcomes · $2.9M reported volume

Observed 37s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume

Observed 37s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Alibaba Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗ 0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗	—
Anthropic Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	45.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 46.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗ 92.0% Bid 91.0% · Ask 93.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗ 81.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 89.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	77.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 81.0% Anthropic Open Kalshi ↗	—
Baidu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Baidu Open Kalshi ↗	—
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗ 0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% DeepSeek Open Kalshi ↗	—
Google Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗ 5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Google Open Kalshi ↗	—
OpenAI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.8% Bid 4.6% · Ask 4.9% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗ 4.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.5% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗ 5.2% Bid 1.5% · Ask 8.9% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0% OpenAI Open Kalshi ↗	—
xAI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.2% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% xAI Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Z.ai Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Z.ai Open Kalshi ↗	—
Amazon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Amazon Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Amazon Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Amazon Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
ByteDance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company A · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company A · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company B · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company B · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company C · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company C · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Company K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗ 50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Meituan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 1.1% · Ask 1.4% Meta Open Polymarket ↗ 1.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.5% Meta Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Microsoft Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Microsoft Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Microsoft Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Microsoft Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Mistral Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗ 0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Moonshot Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗ 17.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 33.6% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Moonshot AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Moonshot AI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗ 5.3% Bid 0.3% · Ask 10.2% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
SpaceXAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% SpaceXAI Open Polymarket ↗ 2.9% Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.0% SpaceXAI Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
StepFun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% StepFun Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% StepFun Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗ 1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Thinky Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Thinky Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Thinky Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗ 0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Alibaba

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.5%

Alibaba

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Polymarket

Kalshi

Alibaba

Polymarket

Kalshi

Anthropic

Polymarket

Kalshi

Baidu

Polymarket

Kalshi

DeepSeek

Polymarket

Kalshi

Google

Polymarket

Kalshi

OpenAI

Polymarket

Kalshi

xAI

Polymarket

Kalshi

Z.ai

Polymarket

Kalshi

Amazon

Polymarket

Kalshi

ByteDance

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company A

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company B

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company C

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company D

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company E

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company F

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company G

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company H

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company I

Polymarket

Kalshi

Company K

Polymarket

Kalshi

Meituan

Polymarket

Kalshi

Meta

Polymarket

Kalshi

Microsoft

Polymarket

Kalshi

MiniMax

Polymarket

Kalshi

Mistral

Polymarket

Kalshi

Moonshot

Polymarket