Market comparison

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

2 venues · 38 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

8 outcomes · $209K reported volume

Observed 21s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $135K reported volume

Observed 21s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alibaba Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anthropic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	—
ChatGPT Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% ChatGPT Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Claude Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Claude Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Company D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company N Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company N · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company O Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company O · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company P Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company P · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company Q Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company Q · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company R Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company R · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company S Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company S · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company T Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company T · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company U Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company U · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company V Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company V · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company W Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company W · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company X Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company X · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company Y Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company Y · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
DeepSeek Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ernie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ernie Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gemini Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Gemini Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	15.5% Bid 12.1% · Ask 18.9% Google Open Polymarket ↗	—
Grok Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Grok Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kimi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kimi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mistral Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗	—
None in 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0% None in 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—
OpenAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.7% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.3% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Qwen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Qwen Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Z.ai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	—

Alibaba

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.6%

Alibaba

Open Polymarket ↗

Anthropic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 21.0%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

ChatGPT

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

ChatGPT

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Claude

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Claude

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Company D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company N

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company N · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company O

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company O · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company P

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company P · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company Q

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company Q · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company R

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company R · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company S

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company S · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company T

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company T · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company U

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company U · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company V

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company V · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company W

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company W · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company X

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company X · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company Y

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company Y · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

DeepSeek

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Ernie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Ernie

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gemini

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Gemini

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 12.1% · Ask 18.9%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

Grok

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Grok

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kimi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Kimi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mistral

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Mistral

Open Polymarket ↗

None in 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0%

None in 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

OpenAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.3%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Qwen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Qwen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Z.ai

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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