Market comparison

Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $93K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $41K reported volume

Observed 9s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bank of America Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% Bank of America Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Bank of America Open Kalshi ↗	1.9 pp
Citigroup Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Citigroup Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Citigroup Open Kalshi ↗	2.9 pp
Goldman Sachs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	9.8% Bid 9.2% · Ask 10.4% Goldman Sachs Open Polymarket ↗	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Goldman Sachs Open Kalshi ↗	3.2 pp
JPMorgan Chase Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% JPMorgan Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% JPMorgan Chase Open Kalshi ↗	0.7 pp
Morgan Stanley Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	88.0% Bid 86.0% · Ask 90.0% Morgan Stanley Open Polymarket ↗	86.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 86.0% Morgan Stanley Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Bank A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Barclays Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.2% Bid — · Ask 0.4% Barclays Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Deutsche Bank Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Deutsche Bank Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
No Listed Underwriter Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% No Listed Underwriter Open Kalshi ↗	—
UBS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.2% UBS Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Wells Fargo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Wells Fargo Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Bank of America

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

Bank of America

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Bank of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Citigroup

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Citigroup

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Citigroup

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.9 pp

Goldman Sachs

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

9.8%

Bid 9.2% · Ask 10.4%

Goldman Sachs

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Goldman Sachs

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.2 pp

JPMorgan Chase

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

JPMorgan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

JPMorgan Chase

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Morgan Stanley

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

88.0%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 90.0%

Morgan Stanley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 86.0%

Morgan Stanley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Bank A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Barclays

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.2%

Bid — · Ask 0.4%

Barclays

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Deutsche Bank

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Deutsche Bank

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

No Listed Underwriter

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

No Listed Underwriter

Open Kalshi ↗

UBS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.2%

UBS

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Wells Fargo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Wells Fargo

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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