Market comparison
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 11 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗15 outcomes · $432K reported volume
Observed 34s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Polymarket
Open venue ↗15 outcomes · $220K reported volume
Observed 34s ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alibaba Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.5 pp | ||
Anthropic Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 8.5 pp | ||
Baidu Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.0 pp | ||
ByteDance Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.4 pp | ||
Deepseek Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 2.5 pp | ||
Google Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 2.0 pp | ||
Meta Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.0 pp | ||
Mistral Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.5 pp | ||
OpenAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 4.0 pp | ||
xAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 3.0 pp | ||
Zhipu AI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.8 pp | ||
01A1 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Amazon Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meituan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Microsoft Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Nvidia Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Zhipu AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alibaba
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
Anthropic
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 8.5 pp
Baidu
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.0 pp
ByteDance
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.4 pp
Deepseek
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.5 pp
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.0 pp
Meta
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.0 pp
Mistral
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
OpenAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.0 pp
xAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.0 pp
Zhipu AI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.8 pp
01A1
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Amazon
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Meituan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Microsoft
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Moonshot
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Moonshot AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Nvidia
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Zhipu AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.