Market comparison

Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)

2 venues · 36 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

35 outcomes · $7K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alibaba Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗	5.8% Bid 0.3% · Ask 11.2% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗	4.8 pp
Anthropic Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	80.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 80.0% Anthropic Open Kalshi ↗	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	47.5 pp
Baidu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Baidu Open Kalshi ↗	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% DeepSeek Open Kalshi ↗	3.2% Bid 0.3% · Ask 6.1% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	2.2 pp
Google Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Google Open Kalshi ↗	50.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 51.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	48.0 pp
OpenAI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0% OpenAI Open Kalshi ↗	3.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.9% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	13.6 pp
Z.ai Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Z.ai Open Kalshi ↗	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Amazon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9% Amazon Open Polymarket ↗	—
ByteDance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company J Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company J · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company K Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company K · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company L Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company L · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Company M Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Company M · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meituan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—
Microsoft Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.4% Microsoft Open Polymarket ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% MiniMax Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mistral Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗	—
Moonshot Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗	—
Moonshot AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Moonshot AI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Nvidia Open Polymarket ↗	—
SpaceXAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 9.7% SpaceXAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
StepFun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.9% Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.5% StepFun Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.1% Bid 0.3% · Ask 10.0% Tencent Open Polymarket ↗	—
Thinky Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0% Thinky Open Polymarket ↗	—
xAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% xAI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Xiaomi Open Polymarket ↗	—

Alibaba

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 11.2%

Alibaba

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.8 pp

Anthropic

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 80.0%

Anthropic

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 47.5 pp

Baidu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Baidu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Baidu

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

DeepSeek

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

DeepSeek

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 6.1%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.2 pp

Google

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Google

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 51.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 48.0 pp

OpenAI

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0%

OpenAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.9%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 13.6 pp

Z.ai

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Z.ai

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Amazon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.9%

Amazon

Open Polymarket ↗

ByteDance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

ByteDance

Open Polymarket ↗

Company A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company J

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company J · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company L

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company L · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Company M

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company M · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Meituan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Meituan

Open Polymarket ↗

Microsoft

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.4%

Microsoft

Open Polymarket ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Mistral

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Mistral

Open Polymarket ↗

Moonshot

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Moonshot

Open Polymarket ↗

Moonshot AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Moonshot AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

SpaceXAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 9.7%

SpaceXAI

Open Polymarket ↗

StepFun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 9.5%

StepFun

Open Polymarket ↗

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 10.0%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

Thinky

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0%

Thinky

Open Polymarket ↗

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

xAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alibaba

Kalshi

Polymarket

Anthropic

Kalshi

Polymarket

Baidu

Kalshi

Polymarket

DeepSeek

Kalshi

Polymarket

Google

Kalshi

Polymarket

OpenAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Z.ai

Kalshi

Polymarket

Amazon

Kalshi

Polymarket

ByteDance

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company A

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company B

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company C

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company D

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company E

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company F

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company G

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company H

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company I

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company J

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company K

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company L

Kalshi

Polymarket

Company M

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meituan

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meta

Kalshi

Polymarket

Microsoft

Kalshi

Polymarket

MiniMax

Kalshi