The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

2 venues · 33 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $3.2M reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Alibaba

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Alibaba

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Anthropic

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

75.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 77.0%

Anthropic

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 64.5 pp

Baidu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Baidu

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Baidu

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

DeepSeek

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

DeepSeek

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Google

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

88.4%

Bid 87.9% · Ask 88.9%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Google

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 85.4 pp

OpenAI

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.7%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 17.0%

OpenAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 16.4 pp

Z.ai

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Z.ai

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Amazon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Amazon

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

ByteDance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

ByteDance

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Company K

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Company K · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Meituan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Meituan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Meta

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.8%

Meta

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Microsoft

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Microsoft

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

MiniMax

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Mistral

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Mistral

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Moonshot

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Moonshot

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Moonshot AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Moonshot AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Nvidia

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

SpaceXAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

SpaceXAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

StepFun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

StepFun

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Tencent

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Thinky

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Thinky

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

xAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

xAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Xiaomi

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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