Market comparison
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
2 venues · 33 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗9 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume
Observed 21s ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket
Open venue ↗32 outcomes · $54K reported volume
Observed 21s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alibaba Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.8 pp | ||
Anthropic Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 10.5 pp | ||
Baidu Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.5 pp | ||
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.9 pp | ||
Google Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.1 pp | ||
OpenAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 12.3 pp | ||
Z.ai Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.9 pp | ||
Amazon Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
ByteDance Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company A Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company B Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company C Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company D Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company E Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company G Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company H Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company I Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company K Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meituan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meta Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Microsoft Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
MiniMax Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Mistral Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Nvidia Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
SpaceXAI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
StepFun Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Tencent Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Thinky Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
xAI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Xiaomi Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alibaba
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.8 pp
Anthropic
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 10.5 pp
Baidu
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.5 pp
DeepSeek
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.1 pp
OpenAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 12.3 pp
Z.ai
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
Amazon
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
ByteDance
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company A
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company B
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company C
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company D
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company E
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company G
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company H
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company I
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Company K
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Meituan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Meta
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Microsoft
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
MiniMax
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Mistral
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Moonshot
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Moonshot AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Nvidia
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
SpaceXAI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
StepFun
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Tencent
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Thinky
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
xAI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Xiaomi
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.