Market comparison

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

2 venues · 17 outcome rows · 13 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $456K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $75K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Burundi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	15.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0% Burundi Open Kalshi ↗	17.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 24.0% Burundi Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Canada Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Canada Open Kalshi ↗	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% Canada Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
China Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% China Open Kalshi ↗	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% China Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Ethiopia Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	18.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 19.0% Ethiopia Open Kalshi ↗	13.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0% Ethiopia Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
India Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% India Open Kalshi ↗	13.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 17.0% India Open Polymarket ↗	5.0 pp
Kenya Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kenya · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.3% · Ask 100.0% Kenya · closed Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Nigeria Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Nigeria · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Nigeria · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Republic of the Congo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	22.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0% Republic of the Congo Open Kalshi ↗	24.5% Bid 19.0% · Ask 30.0% Republic of the Congo Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Rwanda Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	20.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0% Rwanda Open Kalshi ↗	19.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 23.0% Rwanda Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Somalia Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	32.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0% Somalia Open Kalshi ↗	40.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 53.0% Somalia Open Polymarket ↗	8.5 pp
South Sudan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	43.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 44.0% South Sudan Open Kalshi ↗	38.5% Bid 28.0% · Ask 49.0% South Sudan Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Uganda Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Uganda · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Uganda · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
United States Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% United States Open Kalshi ↗	13.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0% United States Open Polymarket ↗	6.5 pp
Angola Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Angola Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Central African Republic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0% Central African Republic Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tanzania Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% Tanzania Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Zambia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Zambia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Burundi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 20.0%

Burundi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 24.0%

Burundi

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Canada

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

Canada

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

Canada

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

China

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

China

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

China

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Ethiopia

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 19.0%

Ethiopia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0%

Ethiopia

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

India

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

India

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 17.0%

India

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

Kenya

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kenya · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.3% · Ask 100.0%

Kenya · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Nigeria

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Nigeria · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Nigeria · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Republic of the Congo

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0%

Republic of the Congo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 30.0%

Republic of the Congo

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Rwanda

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0%

Rwanda

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 23.0%

Rwanda

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Somalia

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0%

Somalia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

40.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 53.0%

Somalia

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 8.5 pp

South Sudan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 44.0%

South Sudan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

38.5%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 49.0%

South Sudan

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Uganda

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Uganda · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Uganda · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

United States

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

United States

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

13.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 19.0%

United States

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.5 pp

Angola

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Angola

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Central African Republic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 58.0%

Central African Republic

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tanzania

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0%

Tanzania

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Zambia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Zambia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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