Market comparison

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

2 venues · 21 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $188K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $57K reported volume

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
2.50 Coin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% $2.50 Coin Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Abolish ICE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.6% Bid 1.5% · Ask 4.6% Abolish ICE Open Kalshi ↗	—
AI-chip export licensing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.5% Bid 15.0% · Ask 24.0% AI-chip export licensing Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Credit-card routing competition Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.5% Bid 10.7% · Ask 14.3% Credit-card routing competition Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Critical-minerals stockpile Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% Critical-minerals stockpile Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Data center utility cost protection Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Data center utility cost protection Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
DEFIANCE Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.1% Bid 1.2% · Ask 18.9% DEFIANCE Act Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Export-control chip security Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Export-control chip security Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Film/TV production expensing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 5.4% · Ask 6.6% Film/TV production expensing Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
FISA Section 702 reauthorization Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% FISA Section 702 reauthorization Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Housing for the 21st Century Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Mandatory body-worn cameras Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	9.5% Bid 2.9% · Ask 9.5% Mandatory body-worn cameras Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mask ban Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.9% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.2% Mask ban Open Kalshi ↗	—
NO FAKES Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0% NO FAKES Act Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
QR-code identification Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.5% QR-code identification Open Kalshi ↗	—
SELF DRIVE Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.9% SELF DRIVE Act Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Separate HSI from ICE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.2% Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.2% Separate HSI from ICE Open Kalshi ↗	—
SHOWER Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.7% SHOWER Act Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.2% Bid 3.3% · Ask 5.1% Smithsonian Women’s History Museum Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Trump Airport Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.1% Bid 0.9% · Ask 3.4% Trump Airport Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Visible identification Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.9% Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.9% Visible identification Open Kalshi ↗	—

2.50 Coin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

$2.50 Coin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Abolish ICE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.6%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 4.6%

Abolish ICE

Open Kalshi ↗

AI-chip export licensing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

19.5%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 24.0%

AI-chip export licensing

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Credit-card routing competition

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 10.7% · Ask 14.3%

Credit-card routing competition

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Critical-minerals stockpile

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

9.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0%

Critical-minerals stockpile

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Data center utility cost protection

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

Data center utility cost protection

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

DEFIANCE Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.1%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 18.9%

DEFIANCE Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Export-control chip security

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Export-control chip security

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Film/TV production expensing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 5.4% · Ask 6.6%

Film/TV production expensing

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Housing for the 21st Century Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Mandatory body-worn cameras

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

9.5%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 9.5%

Mandatory body-worn cameras

Open Kalshi ↗

Mask ban

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.9%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.2%

Mask ban

Open Kalshi ↗

NO FAKES Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.0%

NO FAKES Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

QR-code identification

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.5%

QR-code identification

Open Kalshi ↗

SELF DRIVE Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.9%

SELF DRIVE Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Separate HSI from ICE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

7.2%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 7.2%

Separate HSI from ICE

Open Kalshi ↗

SHOWER Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 5.7%

SHOWER Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Smithsonian Women’s History Museum

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 3.3% · Ask 5.1%

Smithsonian Women’s History Museum

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Trump Airport

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.1%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 3.4%

Trump Airport

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Visible identification

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.9%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.9%

Visible identification

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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