Market comparison

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

2 venues · 53 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

46 outcomes · $19.2M reported volume

Observed 24s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $569K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Above 3 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 3 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 4 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 92.0% Above 4 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 81.0% Above 5 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 6 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 45.0% Above 6 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 7 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Above 7 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 8 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Above 8 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 9 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Above 9 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 10 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 10 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% Above 15 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 20 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% Above 20 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 23 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	78.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 78.0% Above 23 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 25 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 48.0% Above 25 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 27 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0% Above 27 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 30 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 9.0% Above 30 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 35 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Above 35 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 40 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 40 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Above 50 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Above 50 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
August Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% August · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Before Apr 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Apr 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Apr 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Before Apr 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Apr 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Apr 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 33.0% Before Aug 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% Before Dec 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.7% Bid 8.4% · Ask 8.8% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Before Jan 1, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.8% Bid 7.7% · Ask 7.8% Before Jul 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0% Before Jul 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0% Before Jul 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Before Jul 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Jun 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Before Jun 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Jun 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 17.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before May 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Before May 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Before May 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Before Nov 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% Before Oct 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% Before Sep 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
December Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.6% Bid 7.4% · Ask 7.8% December Open Polymarket ↗	—
July Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.5% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—
November Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.1% November Open Polymarket ↗	—
October Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.5% October Open Polymarket ↗	—
September Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—

Above 3

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

Above 3

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 3

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 4

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 5

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 6

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 7

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 8

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 9

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 10

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 15

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 20

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 23

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 25

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 27

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 30

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 35

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 40

Kalshi

Polymarket

Above 50

Kalshi

Polymarket

August

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Dec 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Dec 1, 2027

Kalshi