Market comparison

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $2.5M reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2028

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $604K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democratic Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	65.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 66.0% Democratic Open Polymarket ↗	59.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 59.0% Democratic party Open Kalshi ↗	6.0 pp
Republican Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	34.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% Republican Open Polymarket ↗	40.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% Republican party Open Kalshi ↗	5.5 pp