Market comparison

Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

1 venue · 8 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

8 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Difference
Canadian withdrawal notice Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Canadian withdrawal notice Open Kalshi ↗	—
Formal 16-year extension Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 20.0% Formal 16-year extension Open Kalshi ↗	—
Formal USMCA amendment Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0% Formal USMCA amendment Open Kalshi ↗	—
Mexican withdrawal notice Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Mexican withdrawal notice Open Kalshi ↗	—
Trilateral revised deal Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0% Trilateral revised deal Open Kalshi ↗	—
U.S. withdrawal notice Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 20.0% U.S. withdrawal notice Open Kalshi ↗	—
U.S.–Canada interim agreement Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 32.0% U.S.–Canada interim agreement Open Kalshi ↗	—
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0% U.S.–Mexico interim agreement Open Kalshi ↗	—

Canadian withdrawal notice

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

Canadian withdrawal notice

Open Kalshi ↗

Formal 16-year extension

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 20.0%

Formal 16-year extension

Open Kalshi ↗

Formal USMCA amendment

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0%

Formal USMCA amendment

Open Kalshi ↗

Mexican withdrawal notice

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Mexican withdrawal notice

Open Kalshi ↗

Trilateral revised deal

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 28.0%

Trilateral revised deal

Open Kalshi ↗

U.S. withdrawal notice

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 20.0%

U.S. withdrawal notice

Open Kalshi ↗

U.S.–Canada interim agreement

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 32.0%

U.S.–Canada interim agreement

Open Kalshi ↗

U.S.–Mexico interim agreement

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 41.0%

U.S.–Mexico interim agreement

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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