Market comparison

Who will be arrested before 2027?

2 venues · 30 outcome rows · 24 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

30 outcomes · $1.4M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

24 outcomes · $522K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Adam Schiff Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.7% Adam Schiff Open Kalshi ↗	3.2% Bid 2.6% · Ask 3.8% Adam Schiff Open Polymarket ↗	2.8 pp
Anthony Fauci Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.6% Bid 8.6% · Ask 9.0% Anthony Fauci Open Kalshi ↗	6.6% Bid 5.8% · Ask 7.4% Anthony Fauci Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Barack Obama Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Barack Obama Open Kalshi ↗	1.6% Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1% Barack Obama Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Benjamin Netanyahu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 4.1% · Ask 6.3% Benjamin Netanyahu Open Kalshi ↗	3.9% Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.3% Benjamin Netanyahu Open Polymarket ↗	2.1 pp
Bill Clinton Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.5% Bid 2.5% · Ask 4.4% Bill Clinton Open Kalshi ↗	1.3% Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.6% Bill Clinton Open Polymarket ↗	1.3 pp
Brandon Johnson Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.2% Brandon Johnson Open Kalshi ↗	7.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Brandon Johnson Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Candace Owens Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.6% Bid 2.1% · Ask 9.6% Candace Owens Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 1.2% · Ask 9.9% Candace Owens Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
Gavin Newsom Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.5% Gavin Newsom Open Kalshi ↗	3.2% Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.5% Gavin Newsom Open Polymarket ↗	1.3 pp
Hillary Clinton Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.5% Bid 2.4% · Ask 5.5% Hillary Clinton Open Kalshi ↗	1.5% Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.7% Hillary Clinton Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
James Clapper Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.7% Bid 9.1% · Ask 9.8% James Clapper Open Kalshi ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0% James Clapper Open Polymarket ↗	3.7 pp
James Comey Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.4% Bid 99.4% · Ask 99.6% James Comey · closed Open Kalshi ↗	9.7% Bid 9.5% · Ask 9.8% James Comey Open Polymarket ↗	89.8 pp
Joe Biden Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.0% Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.0% Joe Biden Open Kalshi ↗	0.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.3% Joe Biden Open Polymarket ↗	3.1 pp
John Brennan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	21.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% John Brennan Open Kalshi ↗	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% John Brennan Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
John Kerry Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.8% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.8% John Kerry Open Kalshi ↗	1.4% Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.6% John Kerry Open Polymarket ↗	3.4 pp
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.3% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.3% José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero Open Kalshi ↗	4.0% Bid 3.4% · Ask 4.6% José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero Open Polymarket ↗	2.3 pp
Kash Patel Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Kash Patel Open Kalshi ↗	1.9% Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.5% Kash Patel Open Polymarket ↗	1.1 pp
Lee Jun-seok Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.9% Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.9% Lee Jun-seok Open Kalshi ↗	47.9% Bid 2.2% · Ask 93.6% Lee Jun-seok Open Polymarket ↗	40.0 pp
Letitia James Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.7% Bid 6.4% · Ask 9.0% Letitia James Open Kalshi ↗	4.9% Bid 4.8% · Ask 4.9% Letitia James Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Lisa Cook Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.9% Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.9% Lisa Cook Open Kalshi ↗	3.9% Bid 3.8% · Ask 3.9% Lisa Cook Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Loretta Lynch Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.9% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9% Loretta Lynch Open Kalshi ↗	2.3% Bid 1.8% · Ask 2.7% Loretta Lynch Open Polymarket ↗	5.7 pp
Mahmoud Khalil Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0% Mahmoud Khalil Open Kalshi ↗	20.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0% Mahmoud Khalil Open Polymarket ↗	9.0 pp
Pam Bondi Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.7% Pam Bondi Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.8% · Ask 6.1% Pam Bondi Open Polymarket ↗	4.3 pp
Susan Rice Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.6% Bid 4.2% · Ask 9.9% Susan Rice Open Kalshi ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0% Susan Rice Open Polymarket ↗	3.6 pp
Tom Homan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.6% Tom Homan Open Kalshi ↗	6.7% Bid 5.9% · Ask 7.4% Tom Homan Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
Greta Thunberg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Greta Thunberg · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Han Duck-soo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Han Duck-soo · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ilhan Omar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0% Ilhan Omar Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kim Keon Hee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kim Keon Hee · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lee Jae Myung Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% Lee Jae Myung Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nicolás Maduro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.3% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Nicolás Maduro · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Adam Schiff

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.7%

Adam Schiff

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 3.8%

Adam Schiff

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.8 pp

Anthony Fauci

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.6%

Bid 8.6% · Ask 9.0%

Anthony Fauci

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.6%

Bid 5.8% · Ask 7.4%

Anthony Fauci

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Barack Obama

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Barack Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1%

Barack Obama

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Benjamin Netanyahu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 4.1% · Ask 6.3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Bill Clinton

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.5%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 4.4%

Bill Clinton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 1.6%

Bill Clinton

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

Brandon Johnson

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.2%

Brandon Johnson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Brandon Johnson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Candace Owens

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

9.6%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 9.6%

Candace Owens

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 9.9%

Candace Owens

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

Gavin Newsom

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.5%

Gavin Newsom

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.2%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 3.5%

Gavin Newsom

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

Hillary Clinton

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.5%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 5.5%

Hillary Clinton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.7%

Hillary Clinton

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.0 pp

James Clapper

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

9.7%

Bid 9.1% · Ask 9.8%

James Clapper

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0%

James Clapper

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.7 pp

James Comey

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.4%

Bid 99.4% · Ask 99.6%

James Comey · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

9.7%

Bid 9.5% · Ask 9.8%

James Comey

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 89.8 pp

Joe Biden

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 4.0%

Joe Biden

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.3%

Joe Biden

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.1 pp

John Brennan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

John Brennan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

John Brennan

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

John Kerry

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.8%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.8%

John Kerry

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 1.6%

John Kerry

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.4 pp

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.3%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.3%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 3.4% · Ask 4.6%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.3 pp

Kash Patel

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Kash Patel

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 2.5%

Kash Patel

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Lee Jun-seok

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

7.9%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.9%

Lee Jun-seok

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

47.9%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 93.6%

Lee Jun-seok

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 40.0 pp

Letitia James

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.7%

Bid 6.4% · Ask 9.0%

Letitia James

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 4.8% · Ask 4.9%

Letitia James

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Lisa Cook

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.9%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.9%

Lisa Cook

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 3.8% · Ask 3.9%

Lisa Cook

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Loretta Lynch

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

7.9%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9%

Loretta Lynch

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 2.7%

Loretta Lynch

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.7 pp

Mahmoud Khalil

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 16.0%

Mahmoud Khalil

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0%

Mahmoud Khalil

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.0 pp

Pam Bondi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.7%

Pam Bondi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.8% · Ask 6.1%

Pam Bondi

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.3 pp

Susan Rice

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

9.6%

Bid 4.2% · Ask 9.9%

Susan Rice

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0%

Susan Rice

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.6 pp

Tom Homan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.6%

Tom Homan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.7%

Bid 5.9% · Ask 7.4%

Tom Homan

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

Greta Thunberg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Greta Thunberg · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Han Duck-soo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Han Duck-soo · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ilhan Omar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 31.0%

Ilhan Omar

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kim Keon Hee

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kim Keon Hee · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lee Jae Myung

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

Lee Jae Myung

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nicolás Maduro

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.3%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Nicolás Maduro · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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