Market comparison
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
2 venues · 20 outcome rows · 17 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗28 outcomes · $51.2M reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗18 outcomes · $931K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
- Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
- If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Amir Ohana Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Avigdor Lieberman Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Ayelet Shaked Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Benjamin Netanyahu Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Benny Gantz Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Gadi Eizenkot Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.6 pp | ||
Gideon Saar Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Israel Katz Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.8 pp | ||
Itamar Ben Gvir Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Moshe Feiglin Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.7 pp | ||
Naftali Bennett Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Nir Barkat Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.4 pp | ||
Yair Golan Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Yair Lapid Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Yariv Levin Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.5 pp | ||
Yoaz Hendel Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Yossi Cohen Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Gilad Erdan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ofer Winter Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Yuli Edelstein Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Amir Ohana
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Avigdor Lieberman
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.7 pp
Ayelet Shaked
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Benjamin Netanyahu
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
Benny Gantz
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Gadi Eizenkot
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.6 pp
Gideon Saar
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Israel Katz
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.8 pp
Itamar Ben Gvir
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Moshe Feiglin
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.7 pp
Naftali Bennett
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
Nir Barkat
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.4 pp
Yair Golan
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Yair Lapid
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Yariv Levin
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.5 pp
Yoaz Hendel
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Yossi Cohen
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Gilad Erdan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Ofer Winter
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Yuli Edelstein
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.