Market comparison

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

2 venues · 32 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

21 outcomes · $1.5M reported volume

Observed 20s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $33K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Observed 20s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 2, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Before 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	17.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0% Before 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0% Before 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0% Before 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Aug 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Dec 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 51.0% Before Dec 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0% Before Jan 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before July 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.6% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Before July 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Nov 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% Before Nov 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Oct 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Sep 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Dan Bongino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Dan Bongino · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Dan Scavino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.5% Bid 4.1% · Ask 53.0% Dan Scavino Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
David Sacks Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.1% Bid 3.9% · Ask 10.3% David Sacks Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Howard Lutnick Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Howard Lutnick Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
John Ratcliffe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0% John Ratcliffe Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Karoline Leavitt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Karoline Leavitt · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kash Patel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0% Kash Patel Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kristi Noem Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	40.0% Bid 22.4% · Ask 57.5% Kristi Noem Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Lee Zeldin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0% Lee Zeldin Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Lori Chavez-DeRemer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Marco Rubio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Marco Rubio Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Markwayne Mullin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 29.0% Markwayne Mullin Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pam Bondi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Pam Bondi · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pete Hegseth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0% Pete Hegseth Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Russell Vought Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 21.0% Russell Vought Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Scott Bessent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Scott Bessent Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Stephen Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0% Stephen Miller Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Susie Wiles Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 38.0% Susie Wiles Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tom Homan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.5% Bid 8.0% · Ask 33.0% Tom Homan Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Tulsi Gabbard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Tulsi Gabbard · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Before 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0%

Before 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2028

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0%

Before 2028

Open Kalshi ↗

Before 2029

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

50.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 99.0%

Before 2029

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Aug 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Aug 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Dec 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 51.0%

Before Dec 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0%

Before Jan 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before July 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

4.6%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Before July 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Nov 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Before Nov 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Oct 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Sep 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Sep 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Dan Bongino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Dan Bongino · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Dan Scavino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 4.1% · Ask 53.0%

Dan Scavino

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

David Sacks

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.1%

Bid 3.9% · Ask 10.3%

David Sacks

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Howard Lutnick

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Howard Lutnick

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

John Ratcliffe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0%

John Ratcliffe

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Karoline Leavitt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Karoline Leavitt · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kash Patel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0%

Kash Patel

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kristi Noem

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

40.0%

Bid 22.4% · Ask 57.5%

Kristi Noem

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lee Zeldin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

11.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0%

Lee Zeldin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Marco Rubio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Markwayne Mullin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 29.0%

Markwayne Mullin

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pam Bondi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Pam Bondi · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pete Hegseth

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0%

Pete Hegseth

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

15.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Russell Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 21.0%

Russell Vought

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Scott Bessent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Scott Bessent

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Stephen Miller

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 12.0%

Stephen Miller

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Susie Wiles

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 38.0%

Susie Wiles

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tom Homan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 33.0%

Tom Homan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Tulsi Gabbard

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Tulsi Gabbard · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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