Market comparison

Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $763K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $101K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Austria Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.1% Bid 2.8% · Ask 5.4% Austria Open Polymarket ↗	8.8% Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.8% Austria Open Kalshi ↗	4.7 pp
Finland Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Finland Open Polymarket ↗	8.6% Bid 2.1% · Ask 9.5% Finland Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Germany Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.5% Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.9% Germany Open Polymarket ↗	8.4% Bid 2.3% · Ask 8.4% Germany Open Kalshi ↗	3.9 pp
Greece Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.1% Bid 3.4% · Ask 10.9% Greece Open Polymarket ↗	2.4% Bid 2.4% · Ask 8.6% Greece Open Kalshi ↗	4.7 pp
Italy Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% Italy Open Polymarket ↗	9.5% Bid 4.1% · Ask 9.5% Italy Open Kalshi ↗	2.5 pp
Japan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.2% Bid 2.6% · Ask 5.8% Japan Open Polymarket ↗	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Japan Open Kalshi ↗	0.2 pp
New Zealand Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% New Zealand Open Polymarket ↗	7.1% Bid 7.1% · Ask 10.0% New Zealand Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
The Netherlands Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% The Netherlands Open Polymarket ↗	10.0% Bid 2.1% · Ask 10.0% The Netherlands Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Belgium Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0% Belgium Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Israel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 1.9% · Ask 5.5% Israel Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Panama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9% Panama Open Kalshi ↗	—
Singapore Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.6% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.6% Singapore Open Kalshi ↗	—
South Korea Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9% South Korea Open Kalshi ↗	—
Switzerland Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.2% Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.4% Switzerland Open Kalshi ↗	—
United States Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.5% Bid 3.9% · Ask 9.0% United States Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
USA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.4% Bid 3.2% · Ask 10.0% USA Open Kalshi ↗	—

Austria

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

4.1%

Bid 2.8% · Ask 5.4%

Austria

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.8%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 8.8%

Austria

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.7 pp

Finland

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Finland

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.6%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 9.5%

Finland

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Germany

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 5.9%

Germany

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 8.4%

Germany

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.9 pp

Greece

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.1%

Bid 3.4% · Ask 10.9%

Greece

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

2.4%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 8.6%

Greece

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 4.7 pp

Italy

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

Italy

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

9.5%

Bid 4.1% · Ask 9.5%

Italy

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Japan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 5.8%

Japan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Japan

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

New Zealand

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

8.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

New Zealand

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.1%

Bid 7.1% · Ask 10.0%

New Zealand

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.4 pp

The Netherlands

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

The Netherlands

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 10.0%

The Netherlands

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Belgium

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 16.0%

Belgium

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Israel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.7%

Bid 1.9% · Ask 5.5%

Israel

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Panama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.8%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9%

Panama

Open Kalshi ↗

Singapore

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

6.6%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.6%

Singapore

Open Kalshi ↗

South Korea

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.9%

South Korea

Open Kalshi ↗

Switzerland

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

3.2%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 9.4%

Switzerland

Open Kalshi ↗

United States

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 3.9% · Ask 9.0%

United States

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

USA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

8.4%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 10.0%

USA

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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