Market comparison

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

36 outcomes · $614K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $84K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Anthony Furey Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Anthony Furey Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.8% Anthony Furey Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Brad Bradford Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	47.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 48.0% Brad Bradford Open Polymarket ↗	49.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0% Brad Bradford Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
John Tory Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% John Tory Open Polymarket ↗	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.8% John Tory Open Kalshi ↗	0.1 pp
Olivia Chow Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	52.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Olivia Chow Open Polymarket ↗	52.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0% Olivia Chow Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Ana Bailão Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Ana Bailão Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Chris Alexander Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Chris Alexander Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kevin Clarke Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Kevin Clarke Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Marco Mendicino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Marco Mendicino Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Michael Ford Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Michael Ford Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Anthony Furey

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Anthony Furey

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.8%

Anthony Furey

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Brad Bradford

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

47.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 48.0%

Brad Bradford

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0%

Brad Bradford

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

John Tory

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

John Tory

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.8%

John Tory

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.1 pp

Olivia Chow

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

52.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

Olivia Chow

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

52.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 53.0%

Olivia Chow

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Ana Bailão

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Ana Bailão

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Chris Alexander

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Chris Alexander

Open Kalshi ↗

Kevin Clarke

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Kevin Clarke

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Marco Mendicino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Marco Mendicino

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Michael Ford

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Michael Ford

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets