Market comparison

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

2 venues · 92 outcome rows · 23 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

89 outcomes · $58.3M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 27, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $18.3M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bruno Fernandes Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Bruno Fernandes Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Bruno Fernandes Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Bukayo Saka Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Bukayo Saka · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bukayo Saka · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Cole Palmer Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Cole Palmer · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Cole Palmer · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Cristiano Ronaldo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Cristiano Ronaldo · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Cristiano Ronaldo · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Declan Rice Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Declan Rice Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Declan Rice Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Desire Doue Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Desire Doue · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Desire Doue · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Erling Haaland Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Erling Haaland Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Erling Haaland Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Harry Kane Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	76.3% Bid 76.2% · Ask 76.3% Harry Kane Open Polymarket ↗	78.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 78.0% Harry Kane Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
Jude Bellingham Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Jude Bellingham Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jude Bellingham Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Kylian Mbappe Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.6% Bid 5.2% · Ask 6.0% Kylian Mbappé Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Kylian Mbappe Open Kalshi ↗	0.4 pp
Lamine Yamal Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	17.0% Bid 16.7% · Ask 17.2% Lamine Yamal Open Polymarket ↗	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Lamine Yamal Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Lautaro Martinez Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Lautaro Martinez Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Lautaro Martinez Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Lionel Messi Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.6% Bid 1.5% · Ask 1.6% Lionel Messi Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Lionel Messi Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Luis Diaz Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Luis Diaz Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Luis Diaz Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Michael Olise Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Michael Olise Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Michael Olise Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Mohamed Salah Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Mohamed Salah · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Mohamed Salah · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Ousmane Dembele Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Ousmane Dembélé Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ousmane Dembele Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Pedri Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pedri · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Pedri · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Raphinha Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Raphinha · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Raphinha · closed Open Kalshi ↗	1.0 pp
Rodri Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Rodri Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Rodri Open Kalshi ↗	0.7 pp
Vinicius Junior Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Vinícius Júnior Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Vinicius Junior Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Vitinha Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Vitinha Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Vitinha Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Achraf Hakimi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Achraf Hakimi Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AG · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AH Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AH · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AI · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AJ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AJ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AK Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AK · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AL Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AL · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AM · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AN · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AO · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AP · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AQ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AQ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AR Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AR · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AS · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AT Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AT · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AU Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AU · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AV Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AV · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AW · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AX Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AX · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AY Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AY · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
AZ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% AZ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BG · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BH Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BH · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BI · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BJ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BJ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BK Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BK · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BL Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BL · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BM · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BN · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BO · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BP · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BQ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BQ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BR Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BR · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bradley Barcola Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bradley Barcola · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
BS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BS · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BT Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BT · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BU Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BU · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BV Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BV · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BW · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BX Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BX · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BY Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BY · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
BZ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% BZ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Dominik Szoboszlai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Dominik Szoboszlai · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Enzo Fernandez Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Enzo Fernandez · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Fabian Ruiz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Fabian Ruiz Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Federico Valverde Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Federico Valverde · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Gavi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Gavi · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Gianluigi Donnarumma Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Gianluigi Donnarumma · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Julian Alvarez Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Julian Alvarez · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Marcus Rashford Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Marcus Rashford · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Nuno Mendes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nuno Mendes Open Kalshi ↗	—
Pau Cubarsi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Pau Cubarsi Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Phil Foden Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Phil Foden · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Rayan Cherki Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Rayan Cherki · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Rodrygo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Rodrygo · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Scott McTominay Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Scott McTominay · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tijjani Reijnders Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Tijjani Reijnders · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—

Bruno Fernandes

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

Bruno Fernandes

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

Polymarket

Kalshi

Known rule differences between venues

Bruno Fernandes

Polymarket

Kalshi

Bukayo Saka

Polymarket

Kalshi

Cole Palmer

Polymarket

Kalshi

Cristiano Ronaldo

Polymarket

Kalshi

Declan Rice

Polymarket

Kalshi

Desire Doue

Polymarket

Kalshi

Erling Haaland

Polymarket

Kalshi

Harry Kane

Polymarket

Kalshi

Jude Bellingham

Polymarket

Kalshi

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Polymarket

Kalshi

Kylian Mbappe

Polymarket

Kalshi

Lamine Yamal

Polymarket

Kalshi

Lautaro Martinez

Polymarket

Kalshi

Lionel Messi

Polymarket

Kalshi

Luis Diaz

Polymarket

Kalshi

Michael Olise

Polymarket

Kalshi

Mohamed Salah

Polymarket

Kalshi

Ousmane Dembele

Polymarket

Kalshi

Pedri

Polymarket

Kalshi

Raphinha

Polymarket

Kalshi

Rodri

Polymarket

Kalshi

Vinicius Junior

Polymarket

Kalshi

Vitinha

Polymarket

Kalshi

AA

Polymarket

Kalshi

AB

Polymarket

Kalshi

AC