Market comparison
Who will win the Chicago mayoral election?
2 venues · 23 outcome rows · 10 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗24 outcomes · $213K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Feb 23, 2028
Polymarket
Open venue ↗43 outcomes · $10K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Apr 6, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alexi Giannoulias Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | — | ||
Brandon Johnson Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | — | ||
George Cardenas Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 2.6 pp | ||
Joe Holberg Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | — | ||
Kam Buckner Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | — | ||
Maria Pappas Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | — | ||
Matt Brewer Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 3.0 pp | ||
Mike Quigley Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 2.8 pp | ||
Susana Mendoza Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 4.3 pp | ||
Willie Wilson Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified. | 2.8 pp | ||
Candidate AA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AB Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AC Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Candidate AD Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Danielle Carter-Walters Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
John Kelly Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
John Kitover Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Liam Stanton Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Lisa Madigan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Lisa Nee Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Paul Vallas Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Rahm Emanuel Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Toni Brooks Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alexi Giannoulias
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Brandon Johnson
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
George Cardenas
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.6 pp
Joe Holberg
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kam Buckner
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Maria Pappas
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Matt Brewer
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 3.0 pp
Mike Quigley
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.8 pp
Susana Mendoza
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.3 pp
Willie Wilson
Identity matchedThe outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 2.8 pp
Candidate AA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Candidate AB
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Candidate AC
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Candidate AD
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Danielle Carter-Walters
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
John Kelly
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
John Kitover
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Liam Stanton
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Lisa Madigan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Lisa Nee
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Paul Vallas
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Rahm Emanuel
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Toni Brooks
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.