Market comparison
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
2 venues · 6 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗6 outcomes · $3.8M reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗2 outcomes · $459K reported volume
Observed 4m ago
Observed 8m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi also requires the GISS annual value to exceed a fixed level (e.g. 1.28 C) as well as the prior record; Polymarket resolves on rank alone, with ties resolving to the tied rank.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Hottest on record Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | — | ||
2 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
3 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
4 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
5 Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
6 or lower Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Hottest on record
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
2
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
3
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
4
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
5
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
6 or lower
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.