Market comparison

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

2 venues · 2 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $60K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

2 outcomes · $21K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Yes Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Yes Open Kalshi ↗	6.0 pp
2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—

Yes

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Yes

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 6.0 pp

2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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